UTAH JAZZ v HOUSTON ROCKETS
Prediction: 4-2 JAZZ

What a great series this would have been if Yao Ming did not have his season ending injury. It is not good for the Rockets playoff hopes this season but it did give them a great look at the future that they have. I’m not totally discounting the Rockets because anything can happen. But if the Jazz are all healthy, then there is a very slim chance they will get beat. Utah is another one of those teams flying under the radar, but you have quite a few experts thinking they may come out of the West.

The series has the Jazz up 2-1, but take note that the only game won by the Rockets was when Yao was still active. He had 6 blocks in that game but shot 5-14 from the field for 11 points. Question is, does it matter he shot poorly? Yao commands double and triple teams, which makes it harder for Utah to play honest D. When opponents crash down on Yao, that opens the 3’s for Rafer, Shane, Head, and Bobby Jackson. But without Yao, they have only Scola as a decent post presence. And did I mention again that he had 6 blocks?

The Jazz cruised through the next two wins against the Rockets in the regular season, and it doesn’t look any different in the playoffs. Sure, T-Mac might go off again, but who else is there? Rafer Alston is inconsistent, and shoots horribly, not to mention he is injured. Bobby Jackson is his replacement, but is a shoot-first-pass-later shooting guard. He may have his moments, but it won’t be enough to eclipse Deron Williams. The Jazz just have too many big men to handle Scola, and there really isn’t anyone else in Houston except maybe the hardworking Carl Landry and Chuck Hayes? Who do the Jazz have? There’s AK47, Boozer, Millsap, Okur, Collins, and even Harpring.

Jazz Season Summary:
The Jazz were shoo-ins to be in the playoffs this year and NBA fans looked to the new Stockton-Malone duo of Williams-Boozer to bring them to the finals this year. There were quite a bit of questions regarding the comparison, as it seems unfair to lay something that big on such a young combo, but it seems that this one is looking even stronger. As early as now, the pick and roll plays between the two show a ton of similarity to their predecessor, but what Stockton lacked in offense, Deron Williams picks it all up from there.

The Jazz have a solid starting five, boasting of awesome offense and solid defense. They have great rebounding from 3 big guys, Okur, Boozer, and AK47, and very strong defensive guards who have a ton of steals every game in Brewer and Deron. This combination is very difficult to pass every night, and with most key acquisition they made this year in the name of Kyle Korver, the Jazz are going to be very difficult to beat. No one in the West can say they can beat the Jazz with certainty, though the last game of their season showed that they CAN be beat.

I believe the final piece of the puzzle for the Jazz was Korver, as he will be a very serious threat from the outside in the playoffs and he is a killer. They lacked a solid outside shooter, as Okur cannot keep playing from there as they need him inside. Deron is the only shooter they have, so bringing in a guy like Korver completes that need for them. They have no holes in their team now, and they all just need to play well together, like they have all year, to be in the Conference Finals. Whether or not they can take the Lakers out, will be very interesting to see.

Rockets Season Summary:
How lucky are the Rockets right? They were looking at a Finals appearance with Yao and T-Mac finally both healthy and having a great supporting cast behind them. Then Yao has a season ending injury that had people dropping the Rockets out of the playoffs. Instead of succumbing to that pressure, they reeled off 22 straight wins, the second longest winning streak in the history of the NBA. That is a number to behold and is worth mentioning because as good as the Jazz are, the Rockets still have a decent chance of pulling off an upset.

Where are the Rockets weak? Definitely in the middle with Deke aging, he is not going to be able to play half the game, and if he does, sooner or later, he’s going to play horribly. The most positive thing here is that Luis Scola has emerged as a solid player you can count on every single night, and that is something they had never counted on. In the 3 games they have played against the Jazz, Scola has been a monster averaging more than 20 points a game! If he had started off his season this way, he would be giving Durant a huge run for his money for ROY. He is KEY to the Rockets success against the Jazz, and if he can somehow make those hustle plays and score the way he has been, the Jazz need to be careful, as the other Rockets will quickly follow suit.

MATCHUPS:

POINT GUARD: DERON WILLIAMS v RAFER ALSTON/BOBBY JACKSON
Deron Williams IS the 2nd best best point guard in the game, probably trailing only Chris Paul. He is aggressive, smart, and plays the game like he’s been doing it for years. At this stage, he plays like a veteran, and is the heart and soul of this team. It does help that he has Boozer as a tag-team partner, but Deron all by himself, is a different breed of point guard. He has a lot of offense and plays great defense, and passes the ball unbelievably well. I think he trails only Paul in assist numbers but for sure he is in the top 3, with Steve Nash as the other culprit. I see Deron destroying the Rockets guards in this series which is the main reason why I predict the Jazz take it in 6.

Rafer Alston is injured, which may be a good thing because he’s been playing terrible. Bobby Jackson seems like a good alternative as of the moment as he has been playing better ball. In terms of the guard play, there is just no way either of them can defend Deron, and if they can’t find their shooting touch early, they are in very big trouble.
ADVANTAGE: JAZZ

SHOOTING GUARD: RONNIE BREWER v TRACY MCGRADY
The greatest thing about Ronnie Brewer is that he is not noticed. But when you look at the box score this season for almost every game he has played, he is giving your team amazing numbers. One of the best guards in the passing lane, he is one of the league leaders in steals. And what’s more is that he has improved his ability to score tremendously and can be counted on for offense. His defense leads to transition baskets and its one of the keys to Utah’s success this year.

What’s there to say about T-Mac right? He is averaging 21.6 points a game, hauling down almost 6 boards, and 6 dimes a game this season. He is still the player he was before even after all those aches and pains and injuries, but the problem is he has no help now in the playoffs. Aside from Scola, he needs to take the brunt of the scoring and with the Jazz being the defensive minded team that they are, they will look to drop T-Mac from the very beginning. AK47 is going to try to make McGrady’s life miserable every single night, and if T-Mac doesn’t hit his stride early, they may just win one game.
ADVANTAGE: ROCKETS

SMALL FORWARD: ANDRE KIRILENKO v SHANE BATTIER
This is going to be a matchup of defense, though they are not going up against each other, they will be pitted against the main offensive gun of the opposing team. AK47 is a great defensive player and is very long. A lot of players have a lot of difficulty getting past him and T-Mac will have a very hard time ahead. Ak47 also has a good offensive arsenal but rarely uses it as he concentrates more on playing D. But if he emerges as the AK47 we saw early this season and starts to actually score (because he can), the Rockets have no chance in the series.

Shane Battier is a role player, but he is one of the best ones out there. He doesn’t score a lot, but can shoot the consistent three from the corner. His man-to-man defense is one of the best out there too, and they will look to him to guard Deron from time to time also if possible. His defense will lead to a lot of offensive opportunities for the Rockets, but he needs to help ease the scoring off of T-Mac’s shoulders for them to have a chance. If he doesn’t score over 10 points a game in this series, again, the Rockets can forget about it.
ADVANTAGE: EVEN

POWER FORWARD: CARLOS BOOZER v LUIS SCOLA
Carlos Boozer’s career has taken off in Utah, and that trade that brought him here looks like one of the best trades ever. From being a sidekick in Cleveland he has turned into one of the best big men in the league. He shoots an unbelievably high percentage and is a solid rebounder. His game revolves around a pick-and-roll play with Deron and is money all night. He averages more than 20 points and 10 boards a game and has career highs in steals and assists this season. I see no flaw in Boozer’s game, and it seems like every time he shoots the ball, it’s going to go in. The Rockets are going to have a horrible time guarding him, but Scola seems pretty apt in doing that. It will be good to see how the defense plays Boozer in the series, but I see him and Deron shooting the lights out.

What a revelation Luis Scola has been. I’m sure a lot of owners in the league are envious of how he has developed into a solid big man, and next year will be a big year for the Rockets with Yao coming back. That is a Big 3 in the making with Yao, Scola, and T-Mac running the Rockets offense and defense. This year, it was a blessing in disguise for Scola when Yao Ming went down. He was forced into playing a ton of minutes and he did not disappoint. If he had started the season this way, Durant may not even win the ROY award. But as it stands, the Rockets have a great future ahead with Scola around, and I look for him to be a big part of the Rockets success in this series.
ADVANTAGE: JAZZ

CENTER: MEHMET OKUR v DIKEMBE MUTOMBO

Mehmet Okur played a horrible first half of the season but ended it with a blast. The question has always been his consistency as he is one of a handful of big men who can shoot the three and rebound the ball as well as he does. If he can continue to play this way in the series, there is no way the Rockets can stop the Jazz. I don’t see Mutombo flying to the three point line trying to block Okur, so that’s always going to be an open option for him and a bad situation for the Rockets as there is no one who will be out there to defend the 3.

Mutombo is now the default starting center for the Rockets. I guess he could be much worse, but he’s proving that even at his age, he is still capable of that annoying finger wagging practice he has. He is still a force on defense, and all players really think twice before going into Mount Mutombo, and for good reason. There is a fear that your shot will be blocked and a finger wagged in your face, or a chance that his elbow meets your face for a concussion. He has given his own teammates, T-Mac, a concussion doing a pick-and-roll before, so the Jazz need to be a little wary… though it comes out funny when I say that, hehe.
ADVANTAGE: JAZZ

BENCH: Kyle Korver/Matt Harpring/Paul Millsap v Bobby Jackson/Luther Head/Carl Landry

The Jazz have a complete end to end roster now with the addition of sharp-shooter Kyle Korver. The Ashton Kutcher look-alike can drain that three as well as any of the best shooters out there today. And with his addition, the Jazz have an outside threat that they had lost when the likes of Jeff Hornacek had gone to retirement. The pure shooter will drive opponents nuts, and when his threes go in when he spells Brewer off the bench, there is just no way the Rockets can cope with this. Add the solid Harpring off the bench along with the very hardworking Paul Millsap to bang bodies down inside, the Jazz have at least 4 solid bench players coming in with even Ronnie Price as a spark off the bench. It will be interesting to see how many minutes Korver plays in the series, but I am hoping it’s more than what he’s been logging in the regular season.

The Rockets have a decent bench, with Luther Head coming in as the shooter and Bobby Jackson doing the same thing. It will be curious to see how Chuck Hayes does in the series though as they severely lack the big bodies that can defend the Jazz. His perseverance has always done him great, so his role along with Carl Landry will be very important for the Rockets to pass this first round. Aaron Brooks might be that spark off the bench since Rafer is currently injured, but Bobby Jackson needs to play huge for any kind of chance to win.

If the bench of the Rockets don’t deliver anything, especially in offense from Head, Landry, and Jackson, they might not even get two wins against this potent Jazz team. But winning 22 straight games does something to a team like this, who have battled against very difficult odds to even get to the playoffs as easy as they did without Yao Ming in their lineup. So I see them winning two games, but not more than that. They don’t have enough firepower to beat the Jazz, and their defense seems like it won’t be enough to handle the players coming off the Jazz bench either.
ADVANTAGE: JAZZ