NEW ORLEANS HORNETS v DALLAS MAVERICKS
Prediction: 4-2 HORNETS

Okay, I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that the Hornets are going to beat the Mavs in 6 games. I was thinking 7 but I am very certain that Chris Paul is going to totally destroy Jason Kidd in their matchup. Given the fact that Dirk is going to be his usual self in the playoffs, the Mavs severely need Josh Howard and Jason Terry to step up. Otherwise, my prediction might just come true

Both teams have been very strong at home against each other, but in the playoffs, I see the Hornets stealing an early game from the Mavs. It will be up to Dallas to get the Hornets back and it should be a very hard fought series that should go the distance. The reason I think the Hornets have the advantage is that no one can stop Paul’s drives to the basket. There’s no one in the Maverick lineup fast enough to keep up. The reason why the Jason Kidd trade made no sense to me, was that they really didn’t need him. When they had Devin Harris, they had a young, aggressive point guard, who had a huge potential to succeed. He feared no other guard and was strong and scrappy. He could take on Tony Parker easily because he moves at the same speed, and his aggressive drives to the hoop were one of the main reasons the Mavs had so much success in the playoffs in the past seasons. When you see a guard like Chris Paul who might even be faster than Tony, then the Mavs have a problem in that spot.

The key for the Hornets to win this series is to play their game. The one thing I think that will hinder their chances are if their players get overwhelmed by the atmosphere of the playoffs. The Mavs are very used to it, especially Dirk, Terry, and Kidd. The likes of Paul, West, and Chandler, as good as they are, might succumb to the pressure the playoffs bring. But I guess it is good that they are seeded higher, as their nerves can be quelled by their fans since the first game will be played on their homecourt. If they play in Dallas to start the series, they might be in a bit of trouble.

Dallas is very experienced, and will look to pounce on a team that isn’t ready. That team is definitely NOT the New Orleans Hornets. DIrk will be his usual outstanding self, while the need for Josh Howard, Jason Terry, and Jerry Stackhouse to play better is a must. If those 3 players don’t play well and shoot bad percentages from the floor, the Hornets are going to take this one even easier than predicted. I don’t see all 3 Mavs struggling though, as I see Josh having another great series. Terry and Stackhouse though are the keys to this team, but right now, they are question marks. For the Mavs to stand a good chance to move on to the next round, either one of those 2 shooters have to get it going, otherwise, the Hornets are going to get a ton of steals leaving the Mavs shooters alone to pick on Dirk and the Dallas big men.

Hornets Season Summary:
The Hornets have had a great ride this season. Posting the 3rd best record in the league, they have managed to beat the strong teams in the West with pure heart and hustle, but also with such pure talent that it actually borders on inspiring. This team is the darkhorse to get to the Finals and getting the Mavs in the first round is a great challenge towards that goal.

Built with one of the best, if not the best, point guard in the league today, Chris Paul has led this team the entire season. Handing out assist after assist, he leads the league with 11.6 assists a game and 2.6 steals while averaging almost 22 points a game! Those are MVP type numbers from someone as tiny as Chris Paul. His height plays no deterrence to his game, as he plays like it isn’t even a liability, but a huge advantage.

You add 3 unbelievable players with him in David West, Peja, and Chandler, and you have a very sound and solid team. West is capable of scoring 30 a game, and is playing a great season. He has the capability to post up and has a very consistent mid-range jumper. Peja is capable of shooting 7 threes, and can get hot anytime. And Tyson Chandler has been a force this season and is capable of hauling down 20 boards a game. If you mix all those parts together, you have one heck of a team that no one wants to play.

Mavs Season Summary:
Dallas has always been a perennial playoff contender. Are they good enough to get to the NBA Finals, has always been the bigger question. This year, I think the question is even lowered to whether they can make it past the first round. The opinion in the league say that most Western teams would prefer to play the Hornets in the first round because of their inexperience. I believe that is a pitfall and that the Mavs will soon find out the hard way that this just isn’t the case.

When the season began, Dallas had everything it needed to get to the Finals. In my opinion, they had a great starting five with two very solid players coming off the bench. Dirk is the constant here, but with Josh Howard coming into his own, Jason Terry being the solid shooter that he is, and Devin Harris being that future point guard for the Mavs, things seemed very bright for them. Everything changed when they decided their fate would be better off in the hands of a veteran by the name of Jason Kidd. So they traded away the future that was Devin Harris, and its now time to see whether that trade is going to pay off or not.

I personally believe that this was a horrible trade. The arrival of Kidd did give the Mavs more stability and more poise down the stretch, but is that what they really need? They already had that with the ball in Dirk’s hands in the clutch and he has almost always delivered. What they fail to realize is by trading away Harris, they lost a huge part of their success last year. It just makes no sense.

In terms of sheer numbers, Kidd takes the cake averaging almost triple double numbers as usual. But outside those numbers, Devin Harris does all the intangible things and hustle plays that have made the Mavs a huge success in the post seasons of the past years. The core team of Terry, Howard, Stack, and Damp, will always be there to back Dirk up. But when they face teams with great point guards who are fast as hell, that is where they will be at a disadvantage, as Jason Kidd will be a liability in defense.

MATCHUPS:

POINT GUARD: CHRIS PAUL v JASON KIDD
With MVP written all over CP3, there is absolutely no question as to who is the best point guard in the game this season. Averaging insane numbers in both assist and steal categories, Paul is also a great defender especially considering he stands a mere 6′0 flat! But his overall value is above all that, because his mere in-game presence makes all the difference for the Hornets. With all due respect to J-Kidd, Paul will run circles around him in this series, and the Mavs will realize the mistake they have made in dealing away their young gun for an aging veteran.

Jason Kidd was perfect for the Nets. He isn’t a good fit for the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavs are a veteran team, who have significant playoff experience and are able to advance round after round, even with mediocre point guards. With the arrival of Devin Harris this year, they had made huge strides when the season began. They fell over when the trade happened for Kidd. Jason will still average his usual triple double numbers in the playoffs, but that isn’t what the Mavs need. They need a guy who can defend faster point guards from the opposing teams and be aggressive driving to the basket. They need a point guard who can actually SCORE and not always have a pass-first-score-second mentality, which is what Jason Kidd is. It will be a bad unraveling of sorts for the Mavs in this first round, as their hole in the point position will be exploited by the Hornets considerably.
ADVANTAGE: HORNETS

SHOOTING GUARD: MORRIS PETERSON v JASON TERRY
Mo Pete is one of the worst players to start for his team. He is averaging terrible numbers on the season but has still managed to keep his starting job. I guess it will be a great thing if Mo suddenly heats up in the playoffs and starts playing like a starter, but that is highly unlikely. His minutes will dwindle to almost nothing if he can’t do anything to improve his contributions to the team’s offense. I see Bonzi eating up a ton of his minutes if he fails to contribute in this series.

Jason Terry is one heck of a shooter in the playoffs. For some reason his game is always elevated and he manages to play huge games for Dallas at the best possible time. He has burned countless teams with his threes and mid-range game, and will be the key to the Mavs managing to pull this one out. I don’t think there is anyone in the Hornets team who can guard Terry, so it will be good to see how well he does in the first game. Note also that it seems like Stackhouse will be starting. If he turns out ineffective, Avery better do a quick switch because without ample playing time, Terry isn’t going to be able to get it going.
ADVANTAGE: MAVS

SMALL FORWARD: PEJA STOJAKOVIC v JOSH HOWARD
In the world of pure shooters, there isn’t any question that Peja Stojakovic is one of the top players on that list. He can shoot cold the first 30 minutes of the game then suddenly heat up and hit 4 straight threes to close out the game. A very dangerous option for any team to have, it has been proven that his shooting is one of the best out there. If he can start the game on target, the Mavs are going to be packing their bags much earlier than they expect.

Josh Howard has come to his own, posting very solid numbers on every category there is. He is going to be the player to watch in this series for the Mavs as their success will be heavily dependent on how well he plays. He can shoot a high percentage, but on the other side of the coin, can also shoot horribly. I’m not sure if its because he gets tired, but in this series, he will definitely be after trying to chase after Peja through screen after screen after screen. If Howard can play consistently well, this series is going to be very exciting to watch.
ADVANTAGE: MAVS

POWER FORWARD: DAVID WEST v DIRK NOWITZKI
David West has been a force for the Hornets this year, and is a huge part of their success. Without him, the Hornets will have a hard time scoring as West averages over 20 points a game. With that sweet mid-range jumper he has perfected, he is also a very hard handle in the post. I can see one play in my head right now, the game is on the line with Dallas up by one. The ball is in Chris Paul’s hands, and he drives past Jason Kidd into Dampier and Dirk. The defense collapses and he passes out to a wide open David West who sinks the game-winning jumper off that pass. It has happened many times before in the regular season, and it’s going to happen again in this series. So Mavs beware.

Is there anyone better than Dirk in terms of clutch shooting in the playoffs? He has proven himself over and over again, and you do not want the ball in his hands with the game on the line if you don’t wear a Mavs jersey, because chances are, you’re going to get burned. DIrk is again his usual prolific self this season, and with the playoffs at hand, it will still be his hand that controls the Mavericks fate. I see him averaging around 28 points a game against the Hornets, but the question is, who is going to help him? That question will be answered tomorrow night!
ADVANTAGE: MAVS

CENTER: TYSON CHANDLER v ERICK DAMPIER
Tyson Chandler is one happy guy because Chris Paul is his buddy With a ton of Paul’s assists going to West and Chandler, offense becomes easy in the center spot. I see Tyson averaging close to 12 points maybe, but a ton of rebounds as the Mavs only have Dampier in the middle. Bass comes in and is going to have a horrible time boxing Chandler out. Tyson should have a good game or two where he scores 18 to 20 points, and those games the Hornets will most likely win. If he can manage to stay out of foul trouble, the Mavs are going to have a difficult time with any second chance points.

The three-headed monster in the middle for Dallas has been severed, and there remains just one. With Diop and Mbenga moving out of Dallas, the next big man off the bench for the Mavs is Brandon Bass. After him, there is no one else. Dampier will only be counted on the play good D, but he is not going to be very useful especially when the center he is guarding does not post up at all. He’s going to be standing and looking up at all the lobs Paul is going to pass to Chandler and shake his head. He at least should be ready for those passes to deter any kind of easy deuces for the Hornets. Other than that, this position is all New Orleans.
ADVANTAGE: HORNETS

BENCH: Bonzi Wells/Jannero Pargo v Jerry Stackhouse/Brandon Bass/Malik Allen
I’ll put Stack on the bench as I know he is not going to be an effective starter and Terry will replace him eventually. Whatever the case may be, with either Terry or Stack coming off the bench, it should be an advantage in terms of firepower off the bench. The problem is, Jerry has been having a very bad slump, and if he does not deliver in this series, the Mavs will have a really hard time matching up with the Hornets. Brandon Bass is the only big guy off the bench, but is going to be more effective that Dampier in this series and I hope Avery realizes that. He has been severely under-utilizing Bass and an aggressive young guy like that deserves more playing time than he’s getting. They need a good spark off the bench, so I guess it would be right to have Terry come off as the sixth man then. So let’s see what happens.

The Hornets have two sparkplugs off the bench with Bonzi and Pargo coming off it. There have been countless instances where Pargo came off the bench and sparked the Hornets to win because of his threes and aggressive play. Bonzi on the other hand, can come in and post up smaller guards, not to mention is a great steals guy and can be a very solid rebounder also. I hope Byron Scott sees how useless Peterson is and plays Bonzi and Pargo more in his place. They will be a lot more successful if they do that in my opinion. Julian Wright should also contribute quite well if given the chance but is of course the last guy off the bench in terms of Scott’s rotation.

So will the bench be key to this series or will the starting five be? I think the Mavs need to have Howard and Terry play really well for this series to be a good one. They also need Jason Kidd to score more to move the pressure off of Dirk. As for the Mavs bench… honestly speaking they brought in a good player in Malik Allen as he is a solid mid-range player that can hurt you. In the games that he has played a good number of minutes on, he has been very productive, and Avery should consider this option very seriously as I don’t think Eddie Jones or Devean George will be of any significance in the series.

I’m sticking by my prediction after writing everything I have above. The Mavs I still think are the favorites to win this series, but they should be wary as the Hornets are hell-bent on getting to the second round, and have all the proper tools to bring this Mavs team down. I’m sure a lot of people will be surprised if and when (I hope!) the Hornets advance to Round 2. Till then, it should be a good up and down series to watch.
ADVANTAGE: EVEN