ORLANDO MAGIC v TORONTO RAPTORS
Prediction: 4-2 MAGIC

Two of the NBA’s BEST big men go at it in the first round in a POWER versus FINESSE matchup. Dwight Howard has been a monster this year and has dominated every single big guy he has gone up against. Bosh, on the other hand, is very low key, but has also destroyed opposing big men with his uncanny ability to hit outside jumpers from all over, and is the definitely the heart of this Raptors team. These two guys will cancel each other out, which begs the question as to who from their teams will step up.

At first glance, the Magic seem like they have the obvious advantage with Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu playing at an all-star caliber pace. The problem they have is on the point guard position with Jameer Nelson playing so inconsistently that Carlos Arroyo usually comes in and fills in for him. It seems this position is pretty similar for both teams, with Arroyo being a mirror image of what Calderon does for Toronto off the bench, but this has changed in a big way after TJ Ford got injured and Jose Calderon took over the team. Now both Raptor guards are interchangeable parts and can have 10 assists or more each in a game! That number is quite staggering considering how there isn’t a single team in the league with such a two-guard-assist number.

I’m more confident that the Magic have a core that has more experience and more savvy, to win this type of series. Though I can’t discount the fact that the 2 guards of Toronto can easily even things out by controlling the tempo of the game and setting up their wide open shooters.

Magic Season Summary:
The Orlando Magic were shoo-ins to get in the Eastern Conference playoffs after they had brought in Rashard Lewis from the Sonics. You add Hedo Turkoglu to that mix and you have yet another menacing Big 3 to talk about. What’s great about this trio is that its an inside-outside trio. There is no one person who can stop Dwight, not Amare, not Shaq, not any one single player in this league. Double teams and triple teams will come down on Dwight, and he will be fouled a ton of times. When this happens, Dwight passes it out to Hedo and Rashard and you have a myriad of threes all day. This is Orlando’s game, it is very difficult to stop, and it has worked practically every game this season. Their role players are pretty good, with 4 additional shooters off the bench (Dooling, Bogans, Cook, Reddick), and that’s about all they need as Dwight will be the main focus on defense of opposing teams.

Raptors Season Summary:
Built around Bosh, the Raptors play a very different game than most teams in the playoffs. As much as their offense is anchored on Chris, the point guard play is key to their success. Both TJ Ford and Jose Calderon as bona fide starters and can deliver on both ends of the court. They are steady and both have a very high assist-turnover ratio. There is on backcourt as good, or as capable as these two guys. TJ Ford relinquished his starting role when Calderon sacrificed his own playing time for the sake of the team. And as such, the Raps finished the season strong and gave Ford the confidence he needed right in time as the playoffs loomed in the horizon. Anthony Parker has been pretty solid with his shooting, with Jamario Moon prowling the lanes for rebounds and blocks, and Rasho Nesterovic being rejuvenated in the latter stages of the regular season. Rasho is going to play a huge role in the Raptors success especially against Dwight Howard. Bargnani has been so inconsistent all year long and I have no clue if he will show up in the playoffs or not. But if he does and shoots the lights out, Orlando is going to have many problems against this very fluid team.

Orlando has won the season series 2-1, but the playoffs are going to be quite different. I see a very long-drawn series, with both teams winning at home. The point guards of Toronto are going to be the key to their success, and if they prove ineffective (which is very unlikely against Nelson and Arroyo), the Raptors are going home very early. But I’m predicting a 4-3 decision by the Magic here, simply because they have two guys who have a lot of playoff experience and who shoot very well in the clutch. I don’t know how many shots Turkoglu has made to either bail out the Magic or win the game for them, and the same goes for Rashard, but that is testament to their resolve in pressure situations. For the Raptors, I can’t say that for any of them except maybe Chris Bosh.

MATCHUPS:

POINT GUARD: JAMEER NELSON v TJ FORD
When the season began, I thought Jameer Nelson was going to have a career year, what with him dedicating this season to his late father and all that. It turned out to be a very inconsistent up-and-down year for him. It’s not too late to turn it around in the playoffs though, but his numbers against Toronto are very poor for a starting point guard. For me, it should be way better than that as I think he matches up great against TJ Ford. For some reason, it just isn’t working out for Jameer. Big trouble for the Magic in the point.

I’m not sure if I should label TJ Ford the luckiest or unluckiest player this year. He had a very strong season until he had that horrendous injury that could have ended his career. He then lost his starting job to an amazing Jose Calderon, but was given it back by Jose in an act of nobility for the team. And that act did wonders for Ford and the Raps. He’s not back 100% yet for me, but I think he will have a great playoff series. He has run circles around this Magic defense and will be key, along with Calderon, to be able to be the decoys and set-up teammates for easy deuces and threes.
ADVANTAGE: RAPTORS

SHOOTING GUARD: MAURICE EVANS v ANTHONY PARKER
Mo Evans is a good player picked up by the Magic from the Lakers. A very aggressive guard who always plays bigger than his position. I have always liked his style of play because its very strong and aggressive. Even if his numbers against the Raps are so-so, I think he will wake up in this series and prove why he’s in the Magic starting 5.

Anthony Parker finally got a break and got in the NBA last year, and this season he is proving to everyone that he deserves to stay. A very consistent scorer and all-around player, he is a very capable shooter and plays defense pretty well. He averages around 28 minutes a game against the Magic, which is enough time for him to heat up and do his thing. If Parker can get his shooting going, it will be much harder for the Magic to win this series.
ADVANTAGE: RAPTORS

SMALL FORWARD: HEDO TURKOGLU v JAMARIO MOON
Hedo Turkoglu, get this, is averaging 19.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 5 assists this season. There are only a handful of players (LEGENDS) in the NBA who have managed to average this line for a season. Believe it or not, Hedo was not even in the All-Star team! He is hands-down the Most Improved Player this season (great season to Mike Dunleavy too though), and if he doesn’t win it, that would be a great travesty. Hedo will be the KEY to the Magic’s success this year in the playoffs. If he plays the way he did the entire regular season, it looks like the Magic are going pretty deep this time.

Jamario Moon is key to the Raptors inside D. He may not have a ton of blocked shots, but he will be relied on to pull down rebounds and block shots in this series. Moon is capable of so much more but he prefers to let the other guys do the scoring. If he miraculously develops a shooting touch against the Magic this round, it may just get Dwight in foul trouble and that is definitely a big problem for the Magic.
ADVANTAGE: MAGIC

POWER FORWARD: RASHARD LEWIS v CHRIS BOSH
Rashard Lewis loves playing with Dwight Howard. That’s all there is to it. He is averaging around 22 points a game and three 3’s against the Raptors. Anytime the double or triple comes to Dwight, Lewis spots up in the corner to shoot the 3 or drive to the hoop. If he and Turkoglu shoot a high percentage from the floor as they have done against the Raps in the regular season? Then the chances the Raptors have to win more than a game will be very slim. If I’m not mistaken, Lewis should be in the Top 5 players on three pointers made this season, and that is testament to his unbelievable shooting abilities considering he is 6′10!

Chris Bosh is the heart and soul of this squad and he plays unbelievably well against the Magic. He had 40 points in one game where the Raps beat the Magic in Toronto. He practically doesn’t miss from the free throw line, which is pretty darn great for a big man at over 7 feet. He is also the most dependable and most consistent mid-range jumpers in the league. The hardest thing about Bosh is that the people who guard him don’t know where to go. He is so capable of shooting the jumper, the defense can’t cheat by helping. He also drives to the basket very well and is a master in getting fouls to put himself on the line. He has made 25 free throws in their season series, and did not miss a single one. That’s how great a shooter Bosh is, but he and Dwight should cancel each others stats out.
ADVANTAGE: RAPTORS

CENTER: DWIGHT HOWARD v RASHO NESTEROVIC

Dwight Howard is a monster named Superman The most unstoppable force in the NBA, second to none, not even Amare Stoudemire. Dwight is averaging 20.7 points and 14.2 rebounds, and a ton of blocks per game this season. He has just one weakness (like Superman!), and it’s his free throw shooting. I’m surprised though that he did not make it to the defensive player of the year list as practically no one can get past him when they drive to the hoop.

Nesterovic is the balancing factor the Raps need to try and upset the Magic. He is mainly there for defense and rebounds, though he has proven he can hit the perimeter shot and may cause Dwight some real problems because Howard will need to step up to guard him from the outside. He has a very sweet touch for a big man and most likely got that from playing the Spurs.
ADVANTAGE: MAGIC

BENCH: Keith Bogans/Carlos Arroyo/Keyon Dooling v Jose Calderon/Carlos Delfino

The bench for both teams are pretty even, with Calderon being the main bench guy who is actually a starting PG for his team, and any other team in this league. The key to the Raptors bench is Delfino, who has averaged a measly 5 points in the two games the Raps have lost to the Magic this season. The only time they won was when he came off the bench to score 23. It will be difficult for them to win games if no one from their bench steps up, and I see very little coming from guys like Graham and Humphries. The most probable x-factor that can possibly save Toronto from a first round exit? I believe that guy’s name is Jason Kapono. If Kapono can shoot the lights out like he does when no one guards him, then the Magic are in a very tough series. But with how he’s been shooting in the 3 games against the Magic this season at 30%, playing just around 20 minutes a game just isn’t going to get it done.

The Magic, on the other hand, have a pretty cohesive bench unit with around 5 guys they can use in the game. They won’t deliver big numbers, but are part of a good system that won’t allow them to be blown out when they come in. Bogans, Dooling, Arroyo, Foyle, and even Brian Cook, spell small differences that are intangibles for the Magic to win. A bulk of the minutes are going to be taken up by their starters, but when these guys come in, it is certain that they will make a difference.
ADVANTAGE: MAGIC by a hair