One day to go before the NBA Playoffs for 2009 begins! This season is one of the most intriguing in terms of match-ups in both conferences even if the top seeds seem to have it pretty easy. So just like last year, I’m writing this before reading any opinions or predictions by the popular ESPN guys as well as any other source for that matter.

So here are my picks for the First Round in the EASTERN Conference! I’ll follow with the WESTERN Conference match-ups later on. Who are your picks?

EASTERN CONFERENCE

(1) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (8) Detroit Pistons

I’m quite certain that 90% of analysts have picked the Cavs to come out of the EAST and destroy all the teams that come their way. Sure, the Pistons really don’t stand a chance especially with that horrid trade that sent Chauncey to the Nuggets for a very pissed off AI, but that’s how it is. If the Pistons couldn’t handle the Cavs last year with Billups in a Pistons jersey, there really is no chance for the them to pull off any kind of an upset this round.

Why does everyone say no chance? Well, this is Lebron’s MVP year and he really is unstoppable. The addition of Mo Williams gives the Cavs a legit point guard with firepower, something they never had when Lebron got his rest last year. The emergence of Varejao and Delonte and the consistency and range of Z make the Cavs a very difficult team to beat. They would have ended up with ONE loss all year at home if it wasn’t for that last game give-away where LBJ didn’t play. That speaks volumes of how good this team really is this year.

The Pistons? Well… they’re old now and they’re pretty messed up in terms of team chemistry. Curry is a terrible coach and had Rip coming off the bench at a certain point post-mid-season. Injury or no injury, that was just pure idiocy. The AI trade blew up in their faces and totally eliminated any kind of leadership this team solidly had when Chauncey was running the show. So it’s really Stuckey’s show to run now (Stuckey who?) with 3 core players (Sheed, Tayshaun, and Rip) who seem like they are inches away from imploding.

So this is definitely going to be Cavs all the way. I’ll give the Pistons a little respect though and say they MIGHT pull off a tight one at home before all hell breaks loose this off-season and many changes are hopefully made (starting with their coach). But a sweep is definitely in the horizon.

PICK: Cavs in 4. Have Mercy.

(2) Boston Celtics vs (7) Chicago Bulls

With the news of a possible KG shutdown at least for the First Round, the Celtics will be hard-pressed to repeat again this year. Sure, they still are the favorites to win this match-up with the Bulls, but having a gimpy KG is not going to do them any good as his D was vital to their success last year. Don’t count the Bulls out though as this seems like a very intriguing match-up and will be a joy to watch.

How good are the Celtics this year? Well, they’re still pretty good, but they have quite a few problems this time around. KG is hurt, but the 3 core players are all-star-solid. Rondo is having an amazing career-year, Allen is still deadly as hell, and Pierce can still be relied on every single night. Big Baby and Leon Powe have been unbelievable in KG’s absence and look like very good fill-ins and Perk is a force in the middle for D. The problem is, with KG sidelined, their defensive anchor is gone and they lose a consistent mid-range pop-out shooter (unless you want to count Big Baby’s nifty outside jumpers). The bigger problem is their bench. Posey is gone as well as PJ Brown and the replacements ARE… (drumroll…), the very reliable Starbury, Tony Allen, Mikki Moore and Eddie House.

Any chance of an upset? My answer is YES. This young Bulls team is very hungry and more importantly confident and I would not count them out just yet. The trade that brought in Brad Miller and John Salmons made the Bulls a very dangerous deep team and they really are 8 players solid, and it would have been 9 if Deng wasn’t dinged up. They are also a very good defensive team and their players know their roles. Salmons is key here and if he plays the kind of ball he is capable of, the Celtics are in quite a bit of trouble. If Deng was still in the lineup, this series would be even as he plays great D on Pierce. If you shut Pierce down with KG gone, the Celtics are in for a long series and even a possible First Round goner. BUT, champions are champions and I think if the Celtics get in troubled waters, KG will suck it up and play, but that’s just me.

PICK: Celtics in 7.

(3) Orlando Magic vs (6) Philadelphia 76ers

I’ve been hearing everyone say that the Magic are going to sweep the 76ers but I seriously doubt they can. The last 3 games these 2 teams have played were pretty close and Jameer wasn’t even in the last two. The key here is the status of Dalembert as he is day-to-day as of the moment. Without that inside defensive presence in front of Dwight, the Magic will definitely sweep, but with Sam in the lineup, the 76ers will be able to win at least a game at home.

Dwight Howard leads the league in rebounding and blocks while being surrounded by FOUR solid three-point shooters. He’s having a career-year and he’s looking to bring the Magic as far as he possibly can without the help of his backcourt mate Jameer Nelson. Alston has been a very effective replacement BUT I think the loss of Nelson will show more in the playoffs especially in the clutch. Turkoglu and Rashard are key though as they are coming off injuries. If they come back healthy, there should be no way the 76ers can pull off an upset here.

Everyone is counting the 76ers out but they know they can beat the Magic. All their games have been close and having that in mind, I’m pretty sure the new AI and Andre Miller have optimistic goals of reaching the 2nd Round. The keys to their success will be how good Dalembert plays Howard in the post and how well the 76ers can defend the raining threes from Hedo and Rashard. But they need solid big games from Thaddeus Young and Lou Williams to have any chance in this series as well as very strong play from Willie Green. That’s quite a lot of if’s, but it’s a possibility at least.

PICK: Magic in 5.

(4) Atlanta Hawks vs (5) Miami Heat

This is definitely the best match-up in the East in the First Round. Dwyane Wade is having a MONSTER season (on both offensive and defensive ends (ranks 16th in blocks for a PG!) and as much as everyone is talking about Lebron being a shoo-in to win MVP, Wade should seriously be considered as well. For me it’s just a two-man race, Kobe and Dwight aren’t even close to the level these two have consistently played in all year long.

The Hawks are a very good young team and their starting five is rock pretty good. With Marvin Williams coming off an injury, the Hawks are better off with him playing 100% as he really is the key to them winning this series. Josh Smith has been playing well, Bibby and Joe have been consistent all year and Horford is a strong presence in the middle. Their bench is pretty thin though with Flip Murray, Mo Evans, and Zaza spelling the starters. Those aren’t really players you can count on even if Flip has been playing well lately.

I’m very high on the Heat’s chances in this series and I’m picking them to come out of the First Round against the Hawks. They aren’t really a one-man team as everyone says they are. The last 3 games saw the emergence and the amazing potential of Beasley and he is perfect coming off the bench but he is also great starting. There is no doubt in my mind that the Heat can and will pull this one off IF Wade doesn’t get injured and if Beasley plays to his potential.

PICK: Heat in 6.

Related Links:
West First Round Matchups